So here are estimates of the show’s progress from someone who is a big fan and has read the books three times:
Maybe tonight the show will present material from his first “Feast for Crows” chapter, but who knows? But lots of material from that chapter hasn’t been on the show yet, so I reasoned that he has completed only eight. For example, last week’s episode - “Oathkeeper” - contained the final scene of Jaime Lannister’s ninth “Storm of Swords” chapter. This required a few judgment calls, so I stayed conservative. HBO is currently in the middle several chapters, so I’ve listed only the ones that have been completed. Next, I went through the books to find out how many of the chapters have already taken place on the show. But there are still spoilers in the chart. In the chart, I’ve lumped all of the chapters that take place in Dorne and among the miscellaneous Greyjoys into two single groups to mitigate potential spoilers for those who did not heed our warning.
So really, how much source material is left for HBO to use? Martin writes his chapters in point-of-view format - each chapter is seen through the eyes of a single character - so I counted how many chapters each character has in each of the books (not including one-off prologue or epilogue chapters). The sixth season will presumably be based on the sixth book, which isn’t written yet. Seasons 1 and 2 mostly covered the first two books, “Game of Thrones” and “A Clash of Kings.” The third and fourth seasons track (approximately) with the third book, “A Storm of Swords.” The show has also taken material from the next two books, “A Feast For Crows” and “A Dance With Dragons.” Those books will also (allegedly) comprise the show’s fifth season. The decision to deviate from the source material makes sense given how much of it the HBO producers have left. The show runners went off-script, filming some jaw-dropping sequences - for readers at least - that didn’t take place in the book and may or may not have some remarkable implications for book readers.
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